Arbitrage stake example
Adjust odds and total stake — see the exact split and guaranteed margin live
Enter the decimal odds from two different bookmakers pricing the same two-outcome event. The example immediately tells you whether an arb exists, the guaranteed margin percentage, and the exact stake for each side. Rounding is your responsibility before placing — round the displayed split to the nearest $5 or $10 to avoid sharp-bettor flags.
⚠ No arbitrage — combined implied probability is above 100%.
Round stakes to the nearest $5–$10 before placing to avoid sharp-bettor profiling.
Surebet example
Two-way or three-way markets — confirm whether a surebet exists and what the margin is
A surebet exists when the sum of the implied probabilities for all outcomes falls below 100%. This example handles both two-outcome markets (tennis, moneyline basketball) and three-outcome markets (soccer home/draw/away). Toggle the market type, enter the best available decimal odds for each outcome, and see the surebet status and stake split instantly.
Only a surebet exists when the status shows ✅. If it shows ❌, these odds do not guarantee profit.
Bankroll ROI projector
Adjust bankroll, margin, and frequency — see daily, monthly, and compounded returns
Enter your actual starting bankroll, the average arb margin you expect to find, and how many arbs you place per day. The projector calculates daily gross profit, monthly returns, and a 12-month compounded figure if you reinvest a portion of profits. All figures are pre-tax and pre-subscription-cost. These are illustrative arithmetic projections — not forecasts. Real results depend on bookmaker access, execution speed, account limiting timelines, and market availability.
Projections are gross, pre-tax. They assume consistent execution at the stated margin and frequency. Actual results will vary.
How to use these arbitrage examples, step by step
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Each example is a live maths model, not a betting tip
The three examples on this page are mathematical models with adjustable inputs. Change a number and the output recalculates instantly in your browser. No data is sent anywhere. The maths is the same maths every arbitrage scanner uses under the hood — you are seeing the raw calculation, not a curated result. Nothing on this page tells you what to bet. It shows you how the numbers work.
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Start with the arbitrage stake example — enter two real odds
Open the first example and type in two real decimal odds — you can find these on any bookmaker site. Use two different bookmakers pricing the same event. The example immediately shows whether an arb exists and, if it does, exactly how to split your total stake. You do not need to find a real arb to use this example — made-up odds work fine for understanding the maths before you ever place a real bet.
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Adjust the total stake to see how each leg is sized
With two odds entered, change the total stake field up and down. Watch how both leg sizes move proportionally. The stake split is always in the same ratio regardless of the total — it is determined by the odds, not the stake size. This is why you can verify a stake split instantly for any bankroll: the percentage allocation is fixed, only the dollar amounts change.
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Read the guaranteed-margin output — and understand what makes it shrink
The guaranteed margin is shown as both a dollar figure and a percentage. The percentage is what an arb scanner reports. The dollar figure is what you actually receive. Reduce one side's odds slightly and watch the margin shrink — this is exactly what happens when one bookmaker moves their price before you place your second leg. Understanding this relationship is essential before placing real bets.
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Try the surebet example to confirm a two-way arb sums under 100%
The surebet example adds up the implied probabilities for each outcome. An implied probability is simply 100 divided by the decimal odds. If the sum of all implied probabilities is under 100%, a surebet exists. Switch between 2-way and 3-way markets to see how a draw leg changes the calculation. Confirm the 'surebet status' indicator correctly identifies arbs — then enter odds that do not arb to see the negative case.
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Add real-world fees and spread mentally — the displayed edge is gross
The examples show gross margin before any costs. Real trading has costs: bookmaker exchange commission (typically 2–5% on Betfair), promotional turnover requirements on certain accounts, and the small rounding loss from using whole-dollar stakes rather than the precise theoretical split. A 3% gross margin after a 1% Betfair commission on one side becomes a 2% net margin. Adjust your expectations downward from the gross figure shown.
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Use the bankroll ROI projector with your real starting bankroll
Enter the bankroll you actually have available — not what you wish you had. The projector shows daily, monthly, and annual gross returns at your stated margin and frequency. These are arithmetic projections, not forecasts. They assume you execute every arb at exactly the stated margin and frequency, with no limiting, no missed alerts, and no failed bets. Use the projection as a ceiling, then apply a realistic discount for operational reality.
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Change the arb% range to see best and worst monthly outcomes
Adjust the average arb margin field up and down to see the sensitivity of your monthly projection. A 1% average margin versus a 2.5% average margin on the same bankroll and frequency produces very different outcomes. Most liquid-market arbs sit in the 1–3% range. Running the projector at 1%, 2%, and 3% gives you the realistic range of outcomes for your setup.
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These are illustrative — real books move odds and limit accounts
Every output in these examples assumes a static, instantaneous snapshot. Real arbitrage involves odds that move between when you see the alert and when you place both legs; bookmakers that eventually restrict profitable accounts; and tools with finite update frequencies. The maths models the best case. Real operational performance is always somewhat below the modelled figure. Use these examples to understand the mechanics — not to predict your actual income.
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When the maths makes sense, move to a real tool via the Finder
Once you can read the stake example, adjust it, and explain back to yourself why the guaranteed margin exists and how it is calculated, you understand arbitrage betting mechanics. The next step is finding real opportunities. Use the Finder to identify which tools cover your country and sport, start a free trial, and paper-trade for two weeks before committing real money. The examples here give you the analytical foundation; a live scanner gives you the signal.
Questions and answers about the arbitrage examples
What are these arbitrage betting examples?
These are interactive maths models with adjustable inputs. Each example calculates a specific arbitrage concept — stake splits, surebet confirmation, and bankroll projections — live in your browser. Change any input and the output recalculates instantly. They are not calculators that tell you what to bet; they are worked examples that show you how the maths works.
How do I use the arbitrage stake example?
Enter two decimal odds (one from each bookmaker), set your total stake, and read the stake split and guaranteed margin. To test with real numbers, open two bookmaker sites showing the same event and copy the current odds into the fields. If no arb exists, the example shows a warning — the combined implied probability is above 100%.
How do I adjust the fields in the examples?
Click on any number field and type a new value, or use the up/down arrows on the input. The output recalculates automatically after every keystroke — you do not need to click a button. Use the Tab key to move between fields quickly.
Are the numbers in these examples realistic?
The default values are chosen to be realistic for liquid markets. A 2.10 / 2.05 two-way market represents a margin of about 3.6%, which is achievable but not guaranteed. Real arbs on major sports range from 0.5% to 3% on average. The examples use realistic defaults so the outputs feel grounded, not hypothetical.
Do these examples use real bookmaker odds?
No. The examples use whatever odds you type in. They do not connect to live bookmaker feeds. If you want to check whether a specific live opportunity is a real arb, enter the current decimal odds from both bookmakers into the stake example. The output will tell you immediately.
Why does the guaranteed margin shrink when I change one set of odds?
The margin is determined by how far the combined implied probability falls below 100%. When one bookmaker's odds decrease (the price shortens), their implied probability increases, pushing the combined total closer to 100% and reducing the margin. This is exactly what happens in real arbing when one bookmaker updates their price before you place the second leg.
What is the difference between the three examples?
The arbitrage stake example shows a two-outcome market with a guaranteed margin. The surebet example handles both two-way and three-way markets and explicitly confirms whether a surebet exists. The bankroll ROI projector is not an arb detector — it projects long-term returns based on average margin, frequency, and bankroll size.
Can you lose money even when the surebet example shows a confirmed surebet?
In theory, no — if you place both legs at the confirmed odds, the margin is locked. In practice, yes, if you fail to place one leg before the odds change, if your stake is rejected by one bookmaker, or if you misread the market type. A confirmed surebet in this example assumes instantaneous placement at exactly the displayed odds, which does not happen in reality.
What odds format should I use in these examples?
Decimal odds only. Decimal odds express your total return per unit staked — including your original stake. A 2.00 decimal means you get back $2 for every $1 staked. Convert American odds: positive (+150) → 1 + (150/100) = 2.50; negative (-120) → 1 + (100/120) = 1.833. Convert fractional: 3/1 → 1 + 3 = 4.00.
How does stake sizing work in the arbitrage example?
The formula allocates your total stake proportionally to the inverse of each side's odds, ensuring every possible outcome produces the same gross return. Side A gets Total × (1/OddsA) ÷ (1/OddsA + 1/OddsB). Side B gets the remainder. The result is that OddsA × StakeA = OddsB × StakeB = identical gross payout regardless of which side wins.
What bankroll should I use in the ROI projector?
Use your actual available bankroll — the total funds you currently have spread across your bookmaker accounts. Do not use a hypothetical target figure. The projection is only meaningful if the bankroll reflects what is genuinely deployable. If your funds are split across six accounts, the total across all accounts is your bankroll for projection purposes.
Are the ROI projector outputs guaranteed returns?
No. They are arithmetic projections under idealised conditions: every arb hits exactly the stated margin, you find and place exactly the stated number of arbs per day, and no bookmaker limits your accounts. Real performance is always below this ceiling. The projection shows the mathematical best case; account for execution friction, missed alerts, and limiting when planning.
What is the reinvestment field in the ROI projector?
Setting reinvestment to 50% means half of each month's gross profit is added back to your active bankroll for the following month. This models compounding — your bankroll grows, so your absolute daily profit grows even at the same margin and frequency. 0% means you withdraw all profits and the bankroll stays flat. The 12-month compounded output shows the difference.
Why does the surebet example have a 2-way and 3-way toggle?
Two-way markets (tennis, basketball moneyline) have two outcomes. Three-way markets (soccer home/draw/away) have three. The implied probability calculation changes because you are summing three terms instead of two. The draw outcome in soccer is frequently the most mispriced, making three-way surebets distinct from two-way ones in frequency and structure.
What is the 'draw' field for in the surebet example?
The draw field is the decimal odds for the draw outcome in a three-way market. It is only used when you select the '3-way market' toggle. In a two-way market, there is no draw, and the field is hidden. If you are pricing a soccer match, switch to 3-way and enter all three sets of odds: home, draw, and away.
How accurate is the round-stakes recommendation?
The recommendation to round to the nearest $5–$10 is a practical guideline, not a precise rule. Rounding introduces a small imbalance in the guaranteed return across outcomes — the difference between the two outcomes' payouts will be a few dollars rather than zero. This is acceptable. The benefit (appearing as a less systematic bettor to bookmaker risk systems) outweighs the cost (a few dollars of theoretical margin reduction per bet).
Can I use these examples to practice before placing real arbs?
Yes — this is the recommended use. Enter real current odds from two bookmakers into the stake example and verify the margin before deciding whether to place. After the event resolves, check whether the return matched the projected output (accounting for any rounding). This 'paper verification' process builds execution confidence before real money is at risk.
What is the next step after understanding these examples?
The next step is finding real arbitrage opportunities. Use the Finder to identify which tools cover your country, sport, and bookmaker list. Start the free trial. Spend two weeks paper-trading — identifying real arbs from the scanner alerts and running them through these examples to verify the margin before (not) placing them. Then deploy real money once your execution is consistent.
Do these examples work on mobile?
Yes. All three examples are responsive and work in a mobile browser. The input fields accept keyboard or number-pad entry on touch devices. The output recalculates on every input change, so you can test odds directly from your phone while having a bookmaker app open in another tab.